Reimagining the Page: The False Dawn of Digital Reading (Part 1 of 3)

 

Prior to the digital era, the concept of a book was straightforward and universally understood. A book could be anything from a lightweight paperback, ideal for travel and casual reading, to an imposing hardcover designed for display on a coffee table. Regardless of its physical form, a book was recognized simply by its ability to convey stories, information, or ideas through printed text on paper.

Books were physical objects that were interacted with in different ways. They were acquired in charming bookstores imbued with the aroma of paper and ink, or discovered as valuable finds at neighborhood garage sales. Books were also shared in casual settings, borrowed from public libraries or from friends' personal collections. While some exchanges were temporary, books often exchanged hands permanently in a friendly swap.

Our engagements with books were also physical and sensory. Depending on the circumstances, they were handled with either reverence or casual indifference. Some individuals made an effort to maintain a book's pristine condition, while others may have flipped through pages forcefully, occasionally causing the spine to crack, indicating a well-read and cherished volume. When not being utilized, books were either carefully organized on shelves to form personal libraries or left in haphazard piles by the bedside, always within easy reach for a moment's escape into another world.

Thus, in the time before digital texts became prevalent, a book was more than just a medium for reading—it was an object imbued with personal value and physical presence, part of the fabric of daily life.

However, the introduction of a new generation of reading devices, which were notably more elegant and user-friendly compared to the ebook readers from the early 2000s, combined with the extensive marketing efforts of prominent booksellers, played a crucial role in the significant surge in ebook sales that commenced in 2008.

Up until 2006, ebook sales were minimal and relatively stagnant, totaling less than $10 million annually—a negligible amount, less than 1% of the total book sector, which generated about $18 billion each year.  The introduction of the Sony Reader in 2006 and 2007 led to a slight increase in ebook sales, but by the end of 2007, revenues remained below $50 million. However, from 2008 onwards, there was a significant rise in ebook sales. In 2008, the first full year after the Kindle was launched, sales reached $69 million and then surged to $188 million in 2009, representing a nearly threefold increase in just one year. By 2012, ebook sales had exceeded $1.5 billion, marking an impressive 22-fold growth in only four years. This rapid expansion was truly remarkable.

For over a millennium, the book held its place as the preeminent medium for recorded knowledge. However, the future of the traditional book began to appear uncertain. Just as paper had once replaced parchment, movable type had made scribes redundant, and the bound codex had supplanted the papyrus scroll, the advent of computers and electronic books now posed a serious threat to the existence of physical books.

E-books provide a cost-effective and convenient option as they are digital files that can be easily downloaded and stored on electronic devices. They offer the advantage of being lightweight and easily accessible with a simple tap or click. Furthermore, e-books can be stored in large quantities on a single device, eliminating the need for physical storage space. Additionally, e-books are preserved online indefinitely and securely replicated across multiple servers in data centers worldwide, reducing the risk of loss or damage. The appeal of e-books is undeniable, even for those who prefer traditional print books.

The substantial increase in ebook sales between 2008 and 2012 prompted considerable apprehension within the publishing industry. The rapid escalation of sales figures made it difficult to foresee the ultimate impact. Publishers who observed these transformations in 2010, 2011, and 2012 were left to ponder and worry about the future of their industry.

Many feared a scenario similar to the transformation seen in the music industry, questioning whether ebooks might soon represent 40 or 50 percent of their revenue, or even escalate to 80 or 90 percent within a few years. They pondered if physical books were on the same declining trajectory as CDs and vinyl records, potentially being overtaken by digital formats. These concerns about the potential demise of the physical book dominated industry conversations, reflecting widespread and justifiable worry.

Here's what actually unfolded. In the decade that followed, sales of printed books experienced a resurgence, rising consistently as the sales of electronic books began to stabilize. In the United States, 2011 marked the first year that ebook sales surpassed those of hardcovers. However, by 2016, hardcover sales had once again overtaken ebook sales. By 2018, the revenue generated from hardbacks and paperbacks exceeded that of ebooks by more than $300 million. It's perhaps even more indicative of trends that in that same year, twice as many Americans were reading traditional printed books—whether glued or sewn from wood pulp—compared to those reading electronic books.

In 2013, ebook sales did not sustain their previous explosive growth but instead slightly declined—from $1,543 million in 2012 to $1,510 million in 2013, marking a 2.1% decrease. Although there was a modest increase in ebook sales in 2014, they fell more sharply in 2015, dropping to $1,360 million—a 15% decrease, which continued at a similar rate into the following year. The initial growth rates for ebooks were extremely high in 2009 and 2010, approximately 170% annually, but these rates began to sharply decrease, eventually dipping just below zero in 2013. After the slight rebound in 2014, the growth rate remained in the negative from 2015 through 2018.

Conversely, print books have consistently dominated the majority of market sales. Although their share dipped to about 75% of total book sales in 2012, 2013, and 2014, they experienced a resurgence afterward. From 2015 to 2018, the sales of print books rebounded, climbing to represent between 80 and 85% of total book sales.

How did this shift occur? According to studies by John B. Thompson, the trajectory of ebook growth follows the classic technology S-curve pattern. Initially, adoption is slow, then it accelerates rapidly following a significant breakthrough, and finally, it stabilizes once the market becomes saturated or performance limits are reached. In some instances, there may even be a decline after this point if the technology ceases to advance, if new competing technologies emerge, if the novelty diminishes, or if demand decreases for other reasons. Specifically for ebooks, the significant uptake happened around 2008–2009 with the launch of the Kindle. Sales then climbed sharply until 2012, when they plateaued and began to decline.

Looking back, it’s clear that the rapid surge in ebook sales following the introduction of the Kindle in November 2007 was temporary, peaking and then abruptly stopping in 2012. This raises an important question: Why do consumers in the publishing market continue to favor printed books?

Thompson suggests that the preference for printed books may be linked to their 'possession value.' Certain books hold a special significance for readers; they are treasures to be owned, displayed on shelves, revisited over time, and perhaps even showcased in living spaces as a reflection of personal identity. These books, which readers connect with deeply, possess a high value of ownership. For these, the tangible presence of a printed book is greatly appealing. On the other hand, the ebook is a perfect fit for books with less sentimental or personal importance—those with a low possession value. Once read, these can be easily deleted or stored digitally, occupying minimal digital space without the physical footprint of a traditional book.

Printed books possess a level of permanence that digital files do not: while file formats and reading devices may evolve, a printed book remains accessible, independent of technological shifts. They can be shared, lent, or gifted freely, and they lend themselves to display—on tables or shelves—where they can be admired and picked up by others. Moreover, printed books offer aesthetic qualities—a striking cover, a well-crafted layout, a tactile appeal—that elevate them beyond mere content carriers to objects of aesthetic value. These characteristics affirm the printed book as an object appreciated not only for its content but also for the material form it takes. Despite the digital revolution, these distinctive traits ensure that the concept of 'the book' remains largely unchanged, retaining features that are markedly different from those of digital texts.

In the late 1990s and early 2000s, there was widespread speculation that the digital age would bring about a radical reinvention of the book. The traditional structure of the book—organized as a work of a certain length, divided into chapters, and so on—was expected to undergo significant changes once the limitations of the print medium were removed. Many publishers ventured into experiments with ebooks, altering the content in various ways to leverage digital capabilities. However, most of these initiatives did not succeed, and the type of ebook that ultimately dominated the market was one that closely mirrored the content and structure of the traditional print book.

In our next segment, we will explore the experiments with e-books that aimed to redefine our understanding of what constitutes a "book" and discuss why these attempts ultimately failed.